Credo data suggests pattern in property prices

Credo Real Estate’s historical data revealed that the odds against Singapore property prices seem to have been fixed. Following a pattern of several quarters of price moderation, negative residential price corrections were last reflected in 1983, 2000 and 2008.

Notably, this pattern became apparent in 2011’s final quarter.

The residential property index slid from 1.3 percent in Q3 to a scant 0.2 percent in Q4, supporting the view that the existing values are close to their apex.

In addition, the slide in prices overlapped with negative GDP growth and worsening economic conditions that may continue into a recession.

“If a recession occurs this year, it will certainly lead to a correction in the residential market. Even if a recession does not occur this year but economic conditions deteriorate ultimately leading to a recession, the market is also likely to correct,” said Ong Teck Hui, Executive Director and Head of Research and Consultancy at Credo Real Estate.

For a while now, it has been debated when the correction would happen. Analysts opine that property prices would weaken in 2012, backed by rising supply, economic uncertainty and the government’s cooling measures.

On the other hand, if Singaporeans can evade the mild slowdown, a brighter outlook can be expected.

“If economic conditions turn out to be better than expected, we are likely to see a fairly stable market, albeit with uneven performance amongst different market segments and with price adjustments within a narrow range,” noted Ong.

Source : PropertyGuru – 8 Feb 2012

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